U.S. License Relief Could Restore Venezuela Oil Output by Mid-2026

Venezuela’s oil output could climb back above 1 million bpd by mid-2026 as U.S. license expansions allow more crude exports and ease sanctions pressure, according to the EIA.

(Reuters) — Expanded U.S. licenses for Venezuela-related deals are expected to restore the South American country's oil production by mid-2026 to the level it was at prior to a U.S. naval blockade of the country in December, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Feb. 10.

Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA was forced to make deep output cuts after Washington imposed the strict naval blockade to pressure Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan president captured by U.S. forces in early January.

The blockade cut off Venezuela's ability to export oil, causing an accumulation of millions of barrels of crude oil in onshore storage tanks and vessels. Venezuela was producing around 1.1 million to 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil before the blockade.

PDVSA has since reversed most of the output cuts to boost total production to close to 1 million bpd, after the U.S. government last month authorized commodities traders Vitol and Trafigura to join oil major Chevron in exporting Venezuelan oil, helping clear the storage buildup.

Washington late last month also lifted some sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry to make it easier for U.S. companies to sell the country's oil.