Alberta Pushes 1-MMbpd Pacific Oil Pipeline to Expand Asian Exports
G. FELLER, Contributing Author
(P&GJ) — Canada is both a significant consumer and supplier of energy. Substantial energy infrastructure has been developed over decades to gather, process and ship energy to domestic and export markets. Now, the Canadian oil and gas export infrastructure could be on the cusp of new investment initiatives.
A newly proposed Alberta Northwest Coast Oil Pipeline project has an estimated capacity exceeding 1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) that can be delivered to a strategic deep-water port on British Columbia's (B.C.’s) northwest coast. When it is finalized, the project’s formal submission will include a general path and size for the pipeline, as well as specific routing and technical specifications.
Alberta’s provincial government is acting as the initial proponent during early planning stages. The province argues that oil and gas demand will remain strong for decades, especially in Asia. Target markets include Japan, Korea, China and India. The government’s primary goal is to diversify away from dependence on U.S. markets.
For some context, consider the numbers offered by the Alberta government's official press release: "Net export receipts of crude oil have climbed from C$6 billion (B) (US$4.4 B) in 2000 to C$130 B (US$95.4 B) in 2024.”¹ However, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) has reported that the total value of crude oil exports was US$100.7 B in 2024—approximately C$138 B at 2024 exchange rates.
The pipeline’s application will be ready for submission to the federal Major Projects Office on or before July 1, 2026. The project is seeking designation as a “project of national interest” under the Building Canada Act. The federal government in Ottawa and the Alberta government aim to ensure that project approvals are completed within 2 yrs.
Alberta's government says that it will contribute C$14 MM (US$10.2 MM) to support early planning work, including preliminary engineering, cost estimates, economic modeling and early engagement. Previous estimates for similar projects showed a potential for C$3.8 B (US$2.7 B) in total annual government revenues across Canada, with the promise of creating 800,000 jobs over the project’s full lifetime. This project would require billions of dollars in private investment once approved. Once project planning is complete, the expectation is that the private sector will take over project development.
Indigenous ownership and equity are integral to the project, with co-ownership as a core principle. The Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corp. said that it is ready to support Indigenous co-ownership, and the project’s leaders are proposing that federal and provincial loan guarantees be made to support Indigenous co-ownership through the Canada Indigenous Loan Guarantee Corp. and Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corp.
The pipeline’s advocates say it will use “…innovative technology to exemplify best-in-class performance,” and “…will include rigorous safety protocols, advanced monitoring systems and fail-safe engineering practices.” In addition, it “…will comply with mandatory pilotage, tug escorts and restricted navigation zones for marine safety.” Furthermore, to reduce emissions intensity, carbon capture and storage technology will be incorporated and linked to the Pathways carbon capture project. Three companies are participating in the project’s technical advisory group: South Bow, Enbridge and Trans Mountain.
Canada now has more than 840,000 km of transmission, gathering and distribution pipelines. The pipeline network delivers a wide array of products—including natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGL) and crude oil—for domestic use and export. Since 2007, Canada has more than doubled its pipeline and rail flows out of Western Canada. The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) has increased production to approximately 5 MMbpd (from ~2 MMbpd) to accommodate oil sands growth. However, this growth has ultimately been constrained by limited egress capacity, including the cancellation of three major proposed pipeline projects. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP), now complete, has added ~590,000 bpd of egress capacity, marking a major milestone for Canadian oil producers and providing tidewater access to new markets (FIG. 1).
Western Canada’s pipeline export capacity in 2024 included 11.3 Bft³d of natural gas (gas capacity is effective capacity considering TC Energy’s natural gas gathering and transportation system’s [NGTL] export constraints) and 5 MMbpd of crude oil.
A large network of pipelines moves natural gas from producing regions in Western Canada to Eastern Canada and the U.S., where Canada represents the largest foreign supplier. Starting in 2016–2017, constraints in regional gathering systems and export lines have limited growth and depressed prices; however, recent capacity expansions have helped mitigate these issues. Canadian natural gas started to be exported from U.S.-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in 2023. LNG Canada, Canada’s first LNG export facility, successfully loaded its first LNG cargo in June 2025. This facility is supplied with natural gas via the Coastal GasLink pipeline. Two other LNG export facilities—Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG—are currently under construction.
To better understand what is unfolding, the author spoke to Lisa Baiton, President and CEO of The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). She said that her trade association and its members: “…support any new pipeline or capacity expansion that is commercially viable and can move Canadian oil and natural gas to market safely and reliably. Canada has a natural advantage as a supplier to global markets, including Asia, with shorter shipping routes and competitive pricing. Decisions on long-dated, capital-intensive infrastructure projects take time, particularly as industry continues to navigate global market uncertainty, weaker commodity prices and a changing regulatory environment. From a producer perspective, the priority remains a stable, predictable regulatory framework that provides clear pathways for growth and investment. There is continued optimism about the long-term opportunities for Canada as one of the most attractive jurisdictions in the world for investment in oil and natural gas, with the right policy conditions in place.”
To understand this better, the author also spoke with Dylan White, Director of North American Crude Markets for Wood Mackenzie, who said, “Such a system would boost Canada’s oil access to the Pacific Basin and, importantly, non-U.S. demand centers. Recent ruptures in the U.S.-Canada trade alliance have put a spotlight on the interdependency between Canadian oil production and neighboring U.S. refining markets. Alberta’s pipeline proposal rides a wave of public and political support for diversifying Canada’s trade options.”
White said that, despite recent support, “A westbound pipeline project faces several challenges: attracting private sector investment, securing sufficient shipper commitments and competition from brownfield pipeline expansions. A westbound greenfield system would also entail a lengthy and costly construction process.”
This was evidenced by Trans Mountain Corp.’s recent TMX construction saga.
White believes that recent geopolitical events in Venezuela, “…could provide a tailwind for the project. U.S. intervention in Venezuela—and subsequent changes to sanction policy—are expected to support Venezuelan oil supply growth and higher export volumes to the U.S. Greater competition from Venezuelan barrels in U.S. markets will weigh on Canadian heavy crude prices and could support a partial shift in Canadian trade flows to Asian markets.”
Alberta’s pipeline is on a short list of projects that could materially raise the ceiling for westbound oil capacity to international markets.
The author also spoke with Celina Hwang, Director of Crude Oil Markets at S&P Global Energy. Her view is that “An optimization or enhancement of an existing pipeline system is likely to be the lowest-cost option, from a pipeline operator’s perspective, to boost Canada’s export capacity. Currently, there are five optimizations that have been proposed for a total of nearly 900,000 bpd of incremental pipeline capacity. Three of these optimizations have been sanctioned for upwards of 270,000 bpd of incremental capacity. However, expanding or optimizing existing pipeline capacity can only accomplish so much in alleviating capacity constraints that have been a near-constant concern in recent years. A new pipeline to Canada’s West Coast could be considered the more strategic choice when viewed through the lens of Canadian self-sufficiency, but it would also be more expensive and take longer to complete.”
When assessing Alberta’s new proposal, it helps to put that project into a larger context: in 2024, ~4.6 MMbpd of crude oil and NGLs were exported to the U.S. and Eastern Canada from the WCSB via six major export pipelines, as measured by pipeline throughput data. With ~3.1 MMbpd of throughput in 2024, the Enbridge Mainline is the largest export pipeline in Western Canada, transporting crude oil and NGLs to Eastern Canada and the U.S. Five other major export pipelines out of Western Canada account for the remaining crude oil and NGL flows (FIGS. 2 and 3).
Since 2007, Canada has more than doubled its export flows (pipeline and rail) out of the WCSB to approximately 5 MMbpd (from ~2 MMbpd) to accommodate oil sands growth. However, that growth has ultimately been constrained due to limited egress capacity, including the cancellation of three major pipeline projects: the Keystone XL, Northern Gateway and Energy East pipelines. When there is insufficient pipeline capacity, oil can also be exported by rail—even with sufficient takeaway capacity, some volumes still flow on rail, due to advantaged rail economics in certain regions (FIG. 4).
Enbridge has doubled pipeline throughput on the Mainline from ~1.5 MMbpd in 2007 to ~3.2 MMbpd, owing to debottlenecking initiatives and the recently completed Line 3 Replacement. The TMEP achieved commercial operation in May 2024, adding 590,000 bpd of export pipeline capacity. Based on monthly pipeline throughput data from the Canada Energy Regulator, domestic heavy and light crude oil flows on the TMEP system averaged 515,000 bpd in 2024, up from 313,000 bpd in 2023. In June 2025, pipeline flows on the TMEP system averaged ~660,000 bpd (FIG. 5).²˒³˒⁴
Critics say the Alberta northwest coast oil pipeline should not be built. Critics of Alberta's proposed Northwest Coast Oil Pipeline oppose the project citing Indigenous sovereignty grounds, climate and environmental concerns, economic viability questions and concerns about provincial jurisdiction. The opposition spans Coastal First Nations leaders, environmental organizations, B.C.'s provincial government and climate advocates, who argue the project fundamentally conflicts with reconciliation, climate commitments and coastal protection.
The most forceful opposition comes from Coastal First Nations, which asserts legal and territorial rights over its coastal waters. Heiltsuk Nation Chief Marilyn Slett declared, "We will use every tool in our toolbox to ensure that this pipeline does not go ahead." She added, "Today's MoU (memorandum of understanding) does nothing to improve the chances of a north coast pipeline ever becoming reality." Her position reflects decades of community engagement, and she noted, "We, along with the communities and municipalities of the north and central coast and Haida Gwaii, have fought to keep crude oil tankers out of our territorial waters for over 50 yrs."
Union of BC Indian Chiefs President Grand Chief Stewart Phillip stated, "To even entertain this idea shows a profound disrespect for both First Nations law and the will of the people who live there, as well as a total disregard for the climate emergency." This opposition is formalized through both the Save the Fraser Declaration, signed by more than 100 First Nations, and the 2010 Coastal First Nations Declaration, which bans crude oil tankers from north Pacific Coast territories.
Environmental critics emphasize that the pipeline contradicts Canada's climate commitments and poses unacceptable risks to coastal ecosystems. Janetta McKenzie of the well-regarded Pembina Institute expressed concern, saying, "…that the premier and her ministers made no mention of the downside risks of a new pipeline, from runaway climate-changing emissions to expanding tailings ponds and increasing threats to our water, air and land." The region's environmental significance and history of oil spills—particularly the 2016 Nathan E. Stewart incident that spilled 110,000 liters near Bella Bella, an unincorporated community in Campbell Island, B.C.—remain vivid reminders of potential catastrophic damage.
B.C. Premier David Eby has been the project's most prominent political critic, characterizing it as lacking substance and threatening existing development consensus. "There is no company. There is no money. There is no route. There's no nothing," Eby stated, going on to call the proposal "a communications exercise." He further described it as "an energy vampire" that risks "…distracting the federal government, distracting resources and pulling time away from real projects that can be delivered in the near term." Eby argues the tanker ban represents a foundation for coastal First Nations' support of other major projects and warns that carving out exemptions "…is like explaining to a vegetarian that they'll still be a vegetarian if they eat a few steaks."
Critics question the project's economic viability, noting the Trans Mountain pipeline's cost overruns and the absence of private sector proponents willing to risk capital without substantial government de-risking and support.
The Canada energy regulator is the arbiter and the decider. Over the coming months, Alberta will submit its West Coast Oil Pipeline project to Canada’s Major Projects Office. However, there is another key federal government entity that will play a critical role in this project’s future: The CER works within the “CER Act,” which provides a separation between the operational and adjudicative functions of the Regulator. The CER regulates pipelines, energy development and trade in what it says is “…in the Canadian public interest.” CER also noted: “Before we make a decision or recommendation, we factor in economic, environmental and social considerations. By considering all the evidence with these things in mind, we are able to make decisions and recommendations that represent the ever-changing interests and concerns of Canadians. This is key to achieving our vision of being active and effective in Canada’s pursuit of a sustainable energy future.”
The CER also regulates for the complete lifecycle of a pipeline or power line project. When projects are being built, the CER is present; when projects are being operated, the CER is present; and when a project has reached the end of its usefulness and is being abandoned, the CER is present, "…so the work is done safely, and in a way that protects the environment and the public. The Canadian public expects us to hold the companies we regulate accountable for the safe operation of CER-regulated energy infrastructure.”
The CER says that it “…is a recognized leader in the regulation of energy infrastructure. We enable safe, reliable, competitive and environmentally sustainable energy transmission.”
The CER's four interconnected Strategic Priorities reflect areas of cross-organizational focus and improvement “…to help us better deliver on our mission and reach our vision.” These priorities are:
- Trust and confidence
- Reconciliation and implementing the United Nations’ (UN’s) Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples
- Competitiveness and regulatory excellence
- Preparing for the energy future.
The CER said it is implementing the UN’s declaration, as well as delivering on the commitments made in the UN Declaration Act Action Plan. The UN stated, “We do so based on the recognition of rights, respect, co-operation and partnership, by working together with First Nations, Inuit and Métis governments, communities and organizations. We enhance Canada’s global competitiveness through leadership in regulatory innovation and best practices, focusing on cost-effectiveness, transparency, predictability, timeliness and efficiency of regulatory processes.”
One of the CER's key functions is energy adjudication: making decisions or recommendations to the Governor in Council on applications, which include impact assessments, “…using processes that are fair, transparent, timely and accessible.” These applications can pertain to pipelines and related facilities, international power lines, offshore renewable energy, tolls and tariffs, compensation disputes resolution, energy exports and imports, and oil and gas exploration and drilling in certain northern and offshore areas of Canada.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
GORDON FELLER consults for C-suite executives at some of the world’s largest organizations: UN, World Bank, Chevron, Toyota, Bechtel, Parsons and Lockheed. He serves as a Global Fellow at The Smithsonian Institute. He was awarded the Prime Minister Abe Fellowship by The Japan Foundation and The Wallach Fellowship by Columbia Univ. in NYC. Since 1979, hundreds of his articles have been published on all five continents. More than 50 of his in-depth articles have been published by Gulf since the early 1990s.
LITERATURE CITED
- Alberta government website, “Central hub for a northwest coast oil pipeline,” January 6, 2026, online: https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?xID=95475D15DB491-B2FC-E0C1-6D8A67581366A2D0
- Alberta government website, “West coast oil pipeline,” online: https://www.alberta.ca/northwest-coast-oil-pipeline
- Alberta government website, “Memorandum of understanding between the Government of Canada and the Government of Alberta: Agreement to strengthen energy collaboration and build a stronger, more competitive, and more sustainable economy,” November 27, 2025, online: https://open.alberta.ca/publications/mou-goc-goa-strengthen-energy-collaboration-build-stronger-more-competitive-sustainable-economy
- Alberta government website, “Alberta crude oil reserves: Factsheet, January 22, 2025, online: https://open.alberta.ca/publications/alberta-crude-oil-reserves-factsheet