U.S. Natural Gas Futures Rise 4% on Iran Conflict, Near-Record LNG Exports

U.S. natural gas futures climbed 4% as near-record LNG exports and rising global energy prices tied to the Iran conflict fueled supply concerns, even as Waha prices remained negative.

(Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% on March 2 on near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a rise in global energy prices as traders worried about supply disruptions as the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran widened in the Middle East.

Map of Iran (Source: Global Energy Infrastructure.)

Capping gains in U.S. gas futures were milder forecasts for weather and heating demand over the next two weeks.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.1 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $2.96 per million British thermal units.

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 17th day in a row, as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

For this map and other related infrastructure developments, visit Global Energy Infrastructure.

Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and 26 times so far this year.

Waha prices have averaged 32 cents per MMBtu so far in 2026, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025).

In Northern California, next-day gas at the PG&E Citygate fell to a record low of $1.30 per MMBtu. That compares with the prior all-time low of $1.30 on February 26 and averages of $2.28 so far in 2026, $3.42 in 2025, and $5.47 over the past five years (2021-2025).

While in Southern California, spot gas at the SoCal Citygate fell to $1.62 per MMBtu, its lowest since November 2024. That compares with averages of $3.19 so far in 2026, $3.60 in 2025, and $5.71 over the past five years (2021-2025).

Supply and Demand

Average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (billion cubic feet per day) so far in March, down from 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 billion cubic feet per day in Dec. 2025.

Energy analysts said a winter storm last week likely caused energy firms to pull more gas out of storage than usual, knocking stockpiles down to about 2% below normal for the week ended Feb. 27 from near normal the previous week.

But with meteorologists predicting weather across the country will remain mostly warmer than normal through March 17, analysts expect stockpiles to reach above-normal levels by mid-March.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 121.4 billion cubic feet per day this week to 110.9 billion cubic feet per day next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Feb. 27.

Average gas flows to the nine large U.S. LNG export plants eased to 18.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in March, down from a record 18.7 billion cubic feet per day in February.

In Europe, gas soared to a one-year high of around $15 per MMBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark after QatarEnergy halted production of LNG due to the Iran conflict. Qatar is one of the world's biggest LNG producers along with the U.S. and Australia.